(thesis) State Succession in the Case of a Unified Korea Resulting from the Collapse of North Korea

소개글

(thesis) State Succession in the Case of a Unified Korea Resulting from the Collapse of North Korea에 대한 보고서 자료입니다.

목차

TABLE OF CONTENTS
I. INTRODUCTION 1
A. PURPOSE 1
B. WHY WOULD A COLLAPSED NORTH KOREA NOT AUTOMATICALLY BECOME PART OF SOUTH KOREA? 3
C. HYPOTHESIS 5
D. CHAPTER SUMMARIES 6
A. MEANING OF COLLAPSE OF STATE 7
B. POSSIBILITY OF COLLAPSE OF NORTH KOREA 7
III. THEORIES AND HISTORICAL CASES 11
A. SUCCESSION OF STATE 11
1. Definition of Succession of States 11
2. Application of Succession of State to South and North Korea 12
B. THEORIES OF SUCCESSION OF STATE 16
1. International Practice and the Conventional Law 16
2. Conventions 17
a. Vienna Convention on Succession of States in Respect to Treaties 17
b. Vienna Convention on Succession of States in Respect to State Property 18
3. Application of the theories to Korea 20
a. Problems of military intervention on collapsed North Korea 20
b. Succession of International Organization Membership 22
c. Legal Problems Concerning State Succession 22
C. HISTORICAL CASES OF SUCCESSION OF STATES 24
IV. HOW SHOULD SOUTH KOREA PREPARE? 27
A. POLITICAL AND DIPLOMATIC AREAS 27
1. Influences of the Four Big States 27
a. The United States 27
1. United States’ policies toward DPRK 27
2. ROK policy and U.S.-ROK Policy Agreement 31
3. Anti-Americanism 34
b. The People’s Republic of China 38
1. Negative Factors 40
2. Positive Factors 43
c. Japan 45
d. Russia 47
2. Reducing Political differences between the two Koreas 48
a. Unification policy 48
1. South Korean Unification Policy 49
2. North Korean Unification Policy 55
b. North Korean Policies 58
1. Reform of North Korea 58
2. “Seongun Policy” 59
3. “Brinkmanship” with Nuclear Weapons 60
B. MILITARY AREA 61
1. Negative Factors 62
a. U.S.-DPRK military conflict 62
2. Positive Factors 64
a. ROK-U.S. military alliance 64
b. Intervention of South Korean Military 68
c. Readiness of Korean Military 69
C. SOCIAL/ECONOMIC AREA 73
1. Negative Factors 73
a. The Costs of Unification 73
b. Social and Religious differences 76
2. Positive Factors 78
a. Unification education 78
b. Roles of NGOs 81
V. CONCLUSION 84
LIST OF REFERENCES 89
INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST 98

본문내용

ABSTRACT
One potential scenario regarding the future of North Korea is state collapse and unification with South Korea. Effectively isolated from the international community and the world economy, bereft of the great power patronage that it once enjoyed from the Soviet Union and China, and enduring economic shortages and distress, Pyongyang faces challenges that may cumulatively lead to its dissolution. Were collapse to occur, many surmise, unification with the South seems a plausible consequence and many South Koreans expect the consequence.
However, unification of the Korean peninsula by the South’s absorption of the North, faces numerous obstacles. There are many possible legal and institutional issues that would be raised by collapse of North Korea and that would in turn figure into prospects for unification with the South.
These include:
• South and North Korea’s membership as sovereign states in the United Nations;
• Historical issues stemming from the Korean War, including the continuing relevance of the United Nations and Combined Forces Commands; and
• Legal stipulation incorporated into past North-South agreements, such as the 1992 “Inter-Korean Basic Agreement.”
Adding to the complexity of these issues is the geopolitical context in which their resolution must be addressed. In addition to the goals and policies of Seoul and Washington in dealing with state collapse in North Korea, the concerns and approaches of Beijing, Moscow, and Tokyo will also have an impact on how these legal and institutional questions are solved.
Given these complex issues, it is not a foregone conclusion that North Korea, following collapse, may easily be incorporated into a unified Korean state under Seoul’s direction. Therefore, I suggest that the South Korean government needs to prepare for a North Korean collapse which could lead a possibly unified Korean state in Seoul’s direction. The suggestions for preparation can be categorized into three areas: political/diplomatic, military, and Social/economic.
Recent reports concerning North Korea say that North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il’s health is not as good as before, and many North Korean specialists carefully anticipate that this may bring a struggle for political power. Considering the situation, no one can confidently anticipate the situation of North Korea in the future. Therefore, it is the right time for the South Korean government to consider all possibilities and prepare for all possible situations. With these efforts, a unified Korean state can be directed in Seoul’s direction.

키워드

State Succession,   North Korea,   unification,   collapse of North Korea,   Korean War,   Unified Korea,   Unification Policy