국제무역에서의 가격 및 소득탄력성

목차

Ⅰ. 서 론

Ⅱ.추정모형

Ⅲ.추정자료

Ⅳ.추정결과

본문내용

48
3.6
-0.13
-0.9
네덜란드
1.43
3.6
-0.26
-1.4
이탈리아
2.15
7.1
-0.35
-3.0
수출
소득탄력성
가격탄력성
계수
t 값
계수
t 값
미국
1.60
2.7
-0.15
1.1
일본*
1.57
2.2
-0.28
-1.6
독일
1.90
5.8
-0.19
-0.9
프랑스
1.64
3.4
-0.18
-0.6
영국
1.41
4.1
-0.35
-1.7
네덜란드**
0.59
0.8
-0.33
-1.8
이탈리아*
2.10
4.0
-0.11
-0.4
참 고 문 헌
Bairam E., 1988, Balance of Payments, the Harrod Foreign Trade Multiplier, and Economic Growth: The European and North American Experience, 1970-85, Applied Economics, December.
Bairam E., 1990, The Harrod Foreign Trade Multiplier Revisited, Applied Economics, June.
Houthakker H. and Magee S., 1969, Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade, Review of Economics and Statistics, May.
Goldstein M. and M. S. Khan, 1985, Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade, in R. W. Jones and P. B. Kenen, ed., Handbook of International Economics (North-Holland), vol. 2.
International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbook, various issues
International Monetary Fund, Direction of Trade Yearbook,
International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics Yearbook, various issues
Krugman P., 1989, Differences in Income Elasticitys and Trends in Real Exchange Rates, European Economic Review, vol. 33, p. 1031-1054, May.
Llewellyn J. S. Potter, and L. Samuelson, 1985, Economic Forecasting and Policy the International Dimension (Routledge and Kegan Paul).
McCombie J. S. L., 1993, Economic Growth, Trade Interlinkages, and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, vol. 15, p. 471-505.
McGregor P. G. and J. K. Swales, 1985, Professor Thirlwall and Balance-of-Payments Constrained Growth, Applied Economics, Feb.
Thirlwall, A. P., 1979, The Balance-of-Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Difference, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, March.
Abstract
Price and Income Elasticities in International Trade of Industrial Countries
Ho-Seon Hwang
This paper is to measure the relative significance of income change compared with price change in determining trade volumes by estimating the income and price elasticities in trade. It devotes attention to the trade behavior of seven major industrial countries. The estimation result indicates that income variable is statistically more important than price variable in explaining import and export volume growth. This result has a significant theoretical and policy implications. Asymmetrical emphasis on price variables such as wages growth, changes in exchange rates, relative inflation, etc., may not be appropriate in explaining persistent trade imbalance of a country. There should be more attention to the commodity composition of traded goods in explaining the structural trade imbalance of a country. The corresponding policy implication is that, in order to correct a persistent trade deficit of a country, it seems to be almost imperative for the country to raise up its non-price competitiveness by adjusting its commodity composition of trade, or its industrial structure in the long run.

키워드

국제무역,   가격,   소득탄력성,   추정모형,   추정자료,   추정결과