확률적 PERT 네트워크에서 중요도 척도 평가 및 민감도 분석 방법

목차

Ⅰ. 서 론

Ⅱ. 결정지수의 평가 방법
2.1 평가 절차
2.2 분석 예제 및 결과

Ⅲ. 사업완성시간의 평균값
3.1 평가 절차
3.2 분석 결과

Ⅳ. 불확정성 중요도 평가 방법
4.1 평가 절차
4.2 분석 결과

Ⅴ. 불확정성 감소량의 분석 방법
5.1 평가 절차
5.2 분석 결과

Ⅵ. 요약 및 결론

참고문헌
Abstract

본문내용

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Methods for Evaluating Importance Measures and
for Analyzing Sensitivity in a PERT Network
Cho, Jae-Gyeun*
A PERT network is a useful structure for project management and control. In a PERT network, the importance measure of an activity is used to identify those activities that warrant more attention for the project management. For this purpose, two measures are frequently used, namely, the criticality index and the uncertainty importance measure. The criticality index is defined as the probability of an activity being on the critical path, and is used to identify which activity's expected duration to decrease in order to decrease the expected value of the project completion time. The uncertainty importance measure of an activity is used to identify the activities that deserve more attention in reducing the magnitude of the uncertainty in the project completion time. In this paper, we discuss the methods for evaluating criticality index using Monte Carlo simulation and for evaluating uncertainty importance measure of an activity using Taguchi tolerance design technique with modifications. In addition, two types of sensitivity analyses are discussed; i) an analysis method using logistic regression model for evaluating the change in the expected project completion time when the expected duration of an activity is changed by a certain amount, and ii) an analysis method using the contribution ratio for predicting the uncertainty of the project completion time when the uncertainty of each activity is reduced.
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Key Words : PERT network, importance measure, sensitivity analysis
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* Assistant Professor, Dept. of Internet Business, Dong-Eui University

키워드

네트워크,   척도평가,   프로젝트관리,   사업완성시간,   결정지수,   몬테칼로 시뮬레이션