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probability',type='h')
title('Predictive Distribution: a=1/2, b=1/2, n=170, x=31, m=56')
#예측 평균
(m.z<-sum(z*pred.z))
#예측 분산
sum((z-m.z)^2*pred.z)
#Monte Carlo method
a=1/2; b=1/2
n=170; x=31; m=56
N=10000; theta=1:N; z=1:N
for (i in 1:N) {
theta[i]=rbeta(1,a+x,b+n-x)
z[i]=rbinom(1,m,theta
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