신용카드 이용액 증가가 통화량에 미치는 영향 : 벡터자기회귀모형(VAR

목차

Ⅰ. 서 론
Ⅱ. 화폐수요에 관한 기존연구
2.1 화폐수요이론 모형
2.2 Russell 모형
2.3 Akhand-Milbourne 모형
Ⅲ. 신용카드 이용액 증가가 통화량 변동에
미치는 영향 분석
3.1 Granger Causality Test
3.2 단위근 검정(Unit-Root Test)
3.3 공적분 검정
3.4 벡터자기회기
Ⅳ. 요약 및 결론
참고문헌
Abstract

본문내용

mand is reduced as we use credit cards. Interest income from money substitution financial assets increases as we use credit cards and more benefits are generated from the decrease of transaction costs of assets diversion, which gradually reduce the transaction demand.
The positive role of credit card is also proved in the studies on various consumption theories such as Russell's consumption model, liquidity constraint hypothesis etc. In Russell's basic model, it is set up that consumers allocate their life-time income optimally. In the model, credit card improves comsumers' borrowing capacity power and so softens the imperfect capital market - consumer financial market. In the long run, credit card optimally equilibrates the consumption level of the entire life-cycle by raising the personal consumption level in early life and lowering it in the later years.
As stated above, Akhaud-Milbourne model and Russell's model were analyzed by introduction of Korean macro-variables data. As a result, it was proved that the effects of credit card mostly coincide with those of the money demand theories.
The purpose of this paper is to verify and statistically analyze the effects of credit card expenditure on money supply fluctuation, which is the main issue of this paper. For this analysis, statistical analysis was made regarding credit card spending volume, M1, M2, M3, non-monetary banking deposit(OFI) and many other related parameters based on time-series data by term for 14 years from 1985 to 1998.
This statistical analysis was made mainly through Granger Causality Test, Unit Root Test, Cointegration Test, and VAR Model analysis. As a result, it was verified that the increase of credit card usage doesn't have a direct effect on M1 or M2. However, the increase of credit card spending contributes to the increase of OFI among M3, especially.
This paper suggests the followings ;
First, regarding the credit card functions, the money supply theorists' biased view wasn't right. Macro-statistical test verified the fact that the aspect of the money demand theory was much more influenced.
Second, it was proved that credit card has the positive functions and plays positive roles, bringing comsumers into perfect capital market―consumer financial market more closely. Consequently, consumers could acquire the base on which they seek a balanced life by keeping optimal consumption levels through all life-cycles.
Third, it could be concluded from the above discussions that credit card as a sound payment instrument is never the main cause of inflation or increase of money supply, but it would become an essential economic creation contributing to human life in the coming century. Therefore, the monetary authorities must develop the credit card industry, so as to improve positive functions of credit cards and to keep controling some of its negative functions minimally.
Key Words :
credit card usuage, money supply, VAR model, non-monetary banking deposits(OFI), consumption

키워드

신용카드,   이용액 증가,   통화량,   벡터자기회귀,   화폐수요